Research: Rating Action: Moody's takes action on $148 Million of US RMBS issued from 2006 to 2007
Research: Rating Action: Moody’s takes action on 8 Million of US RMBS issued from 2006 to 2007

New York, June 24, 2022 — Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has upgraded the ratings of seven bonds and downgraded the ratings of six bonds from four US residential mortgage backed transactions (RMBS), backed by Alt-A and subprime mortgages issued by multiple issuers.

Please click on this link https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_ARFTL467269 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this Press Release and identifies each affected issuer. This link also contains the associated underlying collateral losses.

Complete rating actions are as follows:

Issuer: Asset Backed Securities Corporation Home Equity Loan Trust, Series OOMC 2006-HE5

Cl. A4, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Nov 1, 2021 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. A5, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Nov 1, 2021 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)

Issuer: Asset Backed Securities Corporation Home Equity Loan Trust, Series RFC 2007-HE1

Cl. A1A, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Nov 1, 2021 Upgraded to A2 (sf)

Cl. A1B, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Nov 1, 2021 Upgraded to A2 (sf)

Issuer: CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust Series 2007-1

Cl. 4-A-1, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Nov 19, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

Cl. 4-A-2, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Nov 19, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

Cl. 4-A-3*, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Nov 19, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

Cl. 4-A-6*, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Feb 13, 2019 Upgraded to Ca (sf)

Cl. 4-A-8, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Nov 19, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

Cl. 4-A-9, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Nov 19, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

Issuer: Bear Stearns Asset Backed Securities I Trust 2007-HE5

Cl. I-A-4, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Jun 21, 2019 Upgraded to B1 (sf)

Cl. II-A, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jun 21, 2019 Upgraded to Ba3 (sf)

Cl. I-A-3, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jun 21, 2019 Upgraded to Ba3 (sf)

*Reflects Interest Only Classes

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today’s rating actions reflect the recent performance as well as Moody’s updated loss expectations on the underlying pools. The rating upgrades are a result of the improving performance of the related pools and/or an increase in credit enhancement available to the bonds. The rating downgrades on CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust Series 2007-1  are primarily due to a deterioration in collateral performance and decline in credit enhancement available to the bonds.

In light of the current macroeconomic environment, we revised loss expectations based on forecast uncertainties with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we have observed an increase in delinquencies, payment forbearance, and payment deferrals since the start of pandemic, which could result in higher realized losses. Our rating actions also take into consideration the buildup in credit enhancement of the bonds, especially in an environment of elevated prepayment rates, which has helped offset the impact of the increase in expected losses spurred by the pandemic.

We estimated the proportion of loans granted payment relief in a pool based on a review of loan level cashflows. In our analysis, we considered a loan to be enrolled in a payment relief program if (1) the loan was not liquidated but took a loss in the reporting period (to account for loans with monthly deferrals that were reported as current), or (2) the actual balance of the loan increased in the reporting period, or (3) the actual balance of the loan remained unchanged in the last and current reporting period, excluding interest-only loans and pay ahead loans. In cases where loan level data is not available, we assumed that the proportion of borrowers enrolled in payment relief programs would be equal to levels observed in transactions of comparable asset quality. Based on our analysis, the proportion of borrowers that are currently enrolled in payment relief plans varied greatly, ranging between approximately 2% and 11% among RMBS transactions issued before 2009. In our analysis, we assume these loans to experience lifetime default rates that are 50% higher than default rates on the performing loans.

In addition, for borrowers unable to make up missed payments through a short-term repayment plan, servicers will generally defer the forborne amount as a non-interest-bearing balance, due at maturity of the loan as a balloon payment. Our analysis considered the impact of six months of scheduled principal payments on the loans enrolled in payment relief programs being passed to the trust as a loss. The magnitude of this loss will depend on the proportion of the borrowers in the pool subject to principal deferral and the number of months of such deferral. The treatment of deferred principal as a loss is credit negative for junior bonds, which could incur write-downs on bonds when missed payments are deferred.

Today’s action has considered how the coronavirus pandemic has reshaped US economic environment and the way its aftershocks will continue to reverberate and influence the performance of residential mortgage loans. We expect the public health situation to improve as vaccinations against COVID-19 increase and societies continue to adapt to new protocols. Still, the exit from the pandemic will likely be bumpy and unpredictable and economic prospects will vary.

We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety.

Principal Methodologies

The principal methodology used in rating all classes except interest-only classes was “US RMBS Surveillance Methodology” published in July 2020  and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/67833. The methodologies used in rating interest-only classes were “US RMBS Surveillance Methodology” published in July 2020  and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/67833 and “Moody’s Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities” published in February 2019 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/59126. Please see the list of ratings at the top of this announcement to identify which classes are interest-only (indicated by the *). Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

Up

Levels of credit protection that are higher than necessary to protect investors against current expectations of loss could drive the ratings of the subordinate bonds up. Losses could decline from Moody’s original expectations as a result of a lower number of obligor defaults or appreciation in the value of the mortgaged property securing an obligor’s promise of payment. Transaction performance also depends greatly on the US macro economy and housing market.

Down

Levels of credit protection that are insufficient to protect investors against current expectations of loss could drive the ratings down. Losses could rise above Moody’s expectations as a result of a higher number of obligor defaults or deterioration in the value of the mortgaged property securing an obligor’s promise of payment. Transaction performance also depends greatly on the US macro economy and housing market. Other reasons for worse-than-expected performance include poor servicing, error on the part of transaction parties, inadequate transaction governance and fraud.

Finally, performance of RMBS continues to remain highly dependent on servicer procedures. Any change resulting from servicing transfers or other policy or regulatory change can impact the performance of these transactions. In addition, improvements in reporting formats and data availability across deals and trustees may provide better insight into certain performance metrics such as the level of collateral modifications.

An IO bond may be upgraded or downgraded, within the constraints and provisions of the IO methodology, based on lower or higher realized and expected loss due to an overall improvement or decline in the credit quality of the reference bonds.

For more information please see www.moodys.com.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The List of Affected Credit Ratings announced here are all solicited credit ratings. For additional information, please refer to Moody’s Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website https://ratings.moodys.com. Additionally, the List of Affected Credit Ratings includes additional disclosures that vary with regard to some of the ratings.  Please click on this link https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_ARFTL467269 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this Press Release and provides, for each of the credit ratings covered, Moody’s disclosures on the following items:

• Rating Solicitation

• Issuer Participation

• Participation: Access to Management

• Participation: Access to Internal Documents

• Endorsement

• Lead Analyst

• Releasing Office

For further specification of Moody’s key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody’s Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found on https://ratings.moodys.com/rating-definitions.

The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody’s estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.

Moody’s quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody’s weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody’s rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider’s credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the issuer/deal page for the respective issuer on https://ratings.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Moody’s attempted but was not able to disclose the draft rating action press release to Bear Stearns Asset Backed Securities I Trust 2007-HE5 or its designated agent(s). The rating action press release for this rated entity was issued with no amendment. The ratings for the remaining rated entities have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody’s general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://ratings.moodys.com/documents/PBC_1288235.

At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.

Please see https://ratings.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody’s legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Yang Yang
Asst Vice President – Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Masako Oshima
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

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